Wednesday, March 31, 2010
It would seem as though many of the top seeds in the NCAA Tournament came into games this year riding a pretty wicked hangover, whether it be a uber-talented but young roster in Kentucky losing to a point gaurdless, offensively-impaired West Virginia team or a Kansas team, long considered the front runner, losing in the second round to a Northern Iowa team that has as many unpronounceable names as KU has lottery picks (which is a lot). The tournament has seemingly been typified not by great players or performances, as we expect come March, but rather by a lack of execution. I seemingly watched countless games where, coming down to the end of the game, teams would struggle to get a shot off, turn the ball over, or chuck a three from 6 feet behind the line. So what do the teams that advanced have that the teams that lost don't? Here's my four defining characteristics of the Final Four teams:
1. Veteran Team - Not just a veteran leader, but a veteran team. One of the most interesting stats of the Final Four is the number of freshmen starting for the Final Four teams - zero. In today's basketball a sophomore is a veteran, and these teams all start players that are at least in their second year on the court. Most of the best players left are upperclassmen, including Duke's Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler, and Nolan Smith; Michigan State's Raymar Morgan, Durrell Summers, and Chris Allen; West Virginia's Da'Sean Butler; and Butler's Matt Howard. Some of these players even made it to their senior years. Notably, there are few freshmen contributors left in the final four.
2. Conference Champions - All of these teams won a conference championship of some sort. West Virginia, Duke, and Butler came into the tournament having won their conference tournaments, with Duke, Butler and Michigan State having won at least a share of the regular season title. What does that equate to? Champions, winners, and hot teams . Butler came into the tournament riding the nation's longest winning streak; perhaps we shouldn't be surprised to see them in the Final Four.
3. Defense - They say that defense wins championships and it still holds true. Butler is noted for having one of the stingiest man-to-man defenses in the country, allowing only 59.6 pts/gm this season. Michigan State, as always, is one of the toughest teams in the tournament, and with Izzo's teams that always starts on the defensive side. West Virginia has won on its defense all year, tough much like Michigan State, West Virginia mixes in a 1-3-1 zone with other defenses to keep teams off balance - it certainly worked against Kentucky. And Duke, though not necessarily known for their defense, has sacrificed points for defense and rebounding from their bigs and has allowed an average of only 56 pts/gm in the tournament.
4. Chemistry - I am admittedly a huge believer in a team that likes each other. Chemistry is more than that, but put simply I like to think of chemistry in sports meaning the desire to win not for you but the guy sitting next to you. Chemistry is often the result of veterans that play with each other for multiple years, but it can also be inherent in the team's culture. All of these teams seemingly have a culture that is the embodiment of the coach, whether it be the toughness of Tom Izzo or the intelligence and number crunching of Brad Stevens.
This isn't to say that none of the other teams have some of these characteristics, but rather that these teams have all of these characteristics. As a Kansas fan, though they had a fantastic year I felt like the team had a bit of an identity crisis the entire year and it finally came back to bite them in the end. Kentucky was young, Syracuse's defense wasn't the same with Onauku in the middle, Villanova forgot how to win, etc. As for who I'm picking, I'm going to save the embarrassment after having picked one final four team between my two brackets.
Sunday, March 21, 2010
If you don't know of my athletic exploits, they are numerous and glorious. As I have mentioned before, the glory days of my athletic career were 7th and 8th grade C team basketball (we were undefeated both seasons). Football ended in the fourth grade when in practice I always got put on my butt by one of the "big" 6th graders - he was huge, I promise. A sprinkler head divot defeated me in baseball... I was the right fielder anyway, so my future probably wasn't bright. So, it only makes sense that I try to build on my prestigious athletic career. My most recent athletic venture - Skiing.
A friend from my MBA program suggested that he hopes to see me in the next Winter Olympics, and after today I would suggest that if I were only younger, I would totally be there. Ok, so that may have overstated my skills ..... scratch skills..... attempts at skiing. I really had hopes though, I really thought I had a shot at the 2014 Olympic Games. I started late in life, but there was still hope, maybe I was an untapped prodigy. That hope quickly diminished however when I found myself laying spread eagle on the slopes with a 6 year-old skiing by giving me the finger. Ok, so that didn't quite happen, but I saw those little patronizing eyes. Just because you came out of the womb wearing skis doesn't give you the right to judge a 24 year-old first time skier!
In all seriousness though, skiing was a lot of fun.... and I did end up on my butt a fair number of times. By all means though, I view this venture as a success. First of all, I'm still alive. I think this was a legitimate concern going in, and I defied the odds and made it out alive. Secondly, I came out of it without seriously hurting myself, and more importantly, without seriously injuring someone else. No doubt, when most of the Arapahoe Basin ski-goers saw me coming they probably immediately left for a different resort, but those who stayed came away unscathed, miraculously. And finally, I didn't get so frustrated that I wanted to quit and by all means would like to go skiing again. I will however need to lick my wounds and let my legs heal up from the repeated beating I gave them via skis. So, in twenty-four more years, look out Rocky Mountains, you will be conquered!
Sunday, March 14, 2010
Work productivity is about to plummet in offices nationwide as employees gather round the water cooler to talk brackets. With the bracket just announced, I haven't filled out my bracket, but here are some of my initial thoughts in regards to the 2010 NCAA tournament.
In terms of toughest bracket, no question its the Midwest, which is rather illogical due to the Midwest having the number one overall seed. If ranked by seed, I would say the Midwest has the best 1-seed, 2-seed, 3-seed, 5-seed, 7-seed, 9-seed, and 10-seed. I also think there's an argument for Tennessee as the best 6-seed, and the "experts" have been talking about 11 San Diego State and 12 New Mexico State as well. Obviously I'm not an expert and all of those seedings could be argued, but there are some pretty good teams with the likes of Kansas, Ohio State, Georgetown, Michigan State, and Tennessee. The bracket also includes the likely National Player of the Year, as well as 6 coaches that have coached a Final Four team, 5 of which have made it to the Championship Game, and 3 of those being National Title winning coaches.
The weakest bracket is the definitely the West bracket. In my opinion it has the weakest top 2 seeds, and I wouldn't be totally surprised if any of the top 6 seeds came out of this bracket. That is also the reason I think Old Dominion is the most likely team to have a chance to pull a George Mason, even having the same seed at 11. Keep in mind I will not be picking that, but the bracket sets up the best for it. At the same time I wouldn't be surprised to see the 11, 12, or 13 seeds win in this bracket.... but which to pick in my bracket... that will require some further thought.
As for the first round games that I think have the chance to be the most intriguing/entertaining. 8/9 games always have potential with the Louisville v. Cal being a good matchup, though given thats just a bad teams from good conferences game, I'll take the UNLV v. UNI game. Mountain West had a solid season with four teams making the bracket and Northern Iowa, having won both the regular season and tournament title in the Missouri Valley, is a solid team. 7/10s are good games and the maybe one of the best first round match-ups is Big XII player of the year James Anderson and Okie State v. Georgia Tech, a very talented but inconsistent team. I also like 6 Notre Dame v. 11 Old Dominion, 6 Xavier v. 11 Minnesota, 5 Temple v. 12 Cornell, and 4 Purdue v. 13 Siena. Thursday and Friday are two of the best days on the sports calendar, hopefully it lives up to the billing!
Friday, March 5, 2010
The uncapped year in the NFL has officially begun, which, as ESPN continues to tell me, means there are no rules... except for five or six apparently non-rule rules. If anyone actually understands all the details of free agency and contracts in the major sports, it would be a miracle. I'm pretty sure most athletes don't even know half the rules, they just want to know when and how much they are going to get paid. The main point of the uncapped year though is that there is neither a ceiling nor a floor to team's salary expenditures. So, you'd think that this would mean that there would be a spending spree and that some team would try to take the Yankee approach to winning, though that's apparently not going to happen. Many teams are going to take a slower approach to free agency. The Bears, however, are not.
In the past twelve hours or so the Bears have signed one of the 3 or 4 best running backs on the free agent market, the best blocking tight end, and the premier free agent of the entire free agency class. All told they spent $55 million in guaranteed salaries and though all the details aren't out, likely about $115 million in total if they actually paid out the entire contracts. Initial concerns are that all of these players are 30 or older (a bad sign in a collision sport like the NFL) and thats a lot of money, but you always have to keep in mind that in the NFL players rarely get their entire contracts paid to them and if their skills decline, they simply get cut (see: Jake Delhomme). Having that said, I generally liked what the Bears did. Here's my take on all of the players:
Julius Peppers, 6 years - $91 Million ($42 M guaranteed): First, it is important to mention that Peppers fills what might possibly have been the Bears biggest need - a pass rusher - and he is definitely the best person available or even unavailable at his position. However, there is some talk about the supremely talented Peppers taking plays off, and that might be true, but when he takes plays off he is still probably better than most DEs in the league. He also likes to shy away from the spotlight, which he was constantly in the middle of in Carolina, being a hometown product (went to UNC) and really having the label of "star player" on his team. Cutler and Urlacher will no doubt deflect some of that spotlight, and that may possibly free Peppers up to just play football. I will say that the Cubs fan in me worries about this being another Soriano signing (a.k.a. 30-year old athlete in his prime signs one of the richest contracts in his league and then goes on to be fragile, and disappointing when he does play). Please, Please don't let this be a Soriano signing, PLEASE!
Chester Taylor, 4 years - $12.5 Million ($7 M guaranteed): Taylor is one of the over-thirty free agent running back club with LaDanian Tomlinson, Brian Westbrook, and Thomas Jones, and probably the least known. Having that said, I think he was probably the best out of that group for the Bears because he is well accustomed to being a backup/complimentary back, is good on third down, and definitely has the least mileage on the tires of any of those backs. The Bears have struggled to have two solid running backs for years and this should solve that. He was probably also the cheapest. He probably won't be around for all four of the years of his contract, but on the whole, a good pickup.
Brandon Manumaleuna, 5 years - total contract not released ($6 M gauranteed): I will admit this signing was a bit puzzling to me at first, especially given that it was the Bear's first of the free agency period. The Bears also already have two good TEs and don't appear to be cutting either. My first thought was that they just thought his name was cool, but the more I think about it, the more it makes sense. I would say the biggest problem with the Bear's offense last year was the offensive line, because Cutler had little time and Forte had no holes. Enter one of the best blocking TEs in the league. Coming in at a cool 300 lbs on his 6'2 frame, Manumaleuna is essentially a sixth offensive linemen, with more athleticism and the ability to make a catch here and there. Given that the free agency crop of offensive lineman isn't real strong, this makes sense.
The Bears, of course, ransomed their draft in the Cutler and Gaines Adams trades, leaving them without a first and second rounder, so they needed to get impact players through free agency. My suggestion for how they should draft - all picks on offensive linemen and hope one or two stick.
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