Wednesday, May 19, 2010
After an unexpected early exit from the playoffs for LeBron, the talk of his impending free agency has heated up much, much more. I would like to first start by saying that LeBron at the end of that series with Boston was not healthy, he couldn't have been. We've gotten used to LeBron crashing through the lane like a freight train with "no regard for human life," as one commentator called it, and that was not the LeBron we saw at the end of that series. We may never know how much his elbow was bothering him - he admitted after the series that it affected him - but I find it hard to believe that he wasn't compensating for it by adjusting his game. This is not to discount the resurgent Celtics, who may have won the series against a healthy LeBron, I just would have liked to have seen it.
In handicapping where LeBron will end up, there are a number of things to consider. He has always claimed that his number one priority is to win, so that would seemingly weight the equation the most. He, of course, has the pull of staying home, as he has been able to do through the first seven years of his career in Cleveland. There's the friend factor, whether it be Jay-Z, minority owner of the Nets; John Calipari, potential coach of the Bulls, Nets, Cavs, Clippers, you name it; John Wall, future Washington Wizard; or any other number of players/friends. Where other star players, Chris Bosh, Dwayne Wade, Amar'e Stoudamire, Joe Johnson, and Carlos Boozer, go could all be a factor or hinge on what happens with LeBron. Oh yeah, and money might factor in - advantage Cavs. So here's how I give the percentages for the teams in the running.
Cleveland Cavaliers: 45%
Everyone is ready to pronounce that LeBron is done with the Cavs after the very disappointing playoff run, but I'm not quite there yet. There's a couple reasons I still think that the favorite is Cleveland, and I don't think its the money. The first reason is the overwhelming pull of playing in his hometown, where he is comfortable and has lived his entire life. The second major reason, at least for me, is the feeling of unfinished business he must have in not having brought a championship to Cleveland. It would have to leave a bad taste in his mouth leaving without the championship, and perhaps even put a "blemish" on his "legacy." Though I think there are certainly now questions about whether this team is built to win a championship, I still think the Cavs provide close to if not the best chance for him to win. Maybe if LeBron was healthy in the playoffs we'd still be watching them play, again we don't know the extent of the injury. Either way, if your the Cavs, I think your best strategy is to give Phil Jackson a load of money to come to Cleveland, with a backup plan of keeping John Calapari in your back pocket.
Chicago Bulls: 40%
The Bulls seem to be the hot name for LeBron after the Cavs playoff failures. They have an attractive budding superstar in Derrick Rose, as well as an energizer and potential All-Star center in Joakim Noah. Toss in the fact that the Bulls would have cap space to add in some other pieces (possibly another max-contract player through a sign-and-trade) and a coaching vacancy that could probably be filled by a candidate of LeBron's choice, and we have a pretty attractive option. Probably the biggest deterrent of Chicago is the shadow cast by the man LeBron idolized as a kid and is trying to chase down as a player, Michael Jordan.
New York Knicks: 10%
The Knicks have been preparing for this summer ever since they gave Isaiah Thomas the boot. The plan has long been to clear cap space and sign LeBron in 2010, and they've done such a good job that they could actually sign two LeBrons..... or perhaps LeBron and Bosh or Wade. The only problem is that they have done such a good job that they don't have a team that LeBron or any star(s) could walk into and have a legitimate shot at a championship. Still, they have the pull of playing in New York and in one of the meccas of basketball, Madison Square Garden. I don't think this is going to be the summer for them, however. I see a more likely scenario of maybe signing one of the second tier free agents (Johnson or Boozer) and then going after Carmelo Anthony next summer.
New Jersey Nets: 4.9%
Russian billionaire, Mikhail Prokhorov, has a plan to win a championship in a maximum of five years, and believes they may be able to next year. In order for that to happen, he has to get LeBron. For the worst team in the NBA, the Nets actually have a couple good pieces with Devin Harris and Brook Lopez. They also have part owner and friend of LeBron, Jay-Z, on their side. Unfortunately for them, the ping pong balls didn't turn out as they would have hoped and John Wall, potential star point guard and another friend of LeBron's, will not be suiting it up for the Nets, a major hit to their prospects of landing King James. Add to that the questions about whether they will actually ever move to Brooklyn, and their chances seem to be dwindling.
Miami Heat, L.A. Clippers, and Dallas Mavericks: .01%
I assume, as do most, that Dwayne Wade will resign with the Heat. Though it sounds like a fun marriage, it wouldn't work - they both need the ball. The Clippers could have the space but there are two strikes against them 1) they're the Clippers and 2) a guy named Kobe shares the same building. The Mavericks, like many teams in the NBA, don't actually have the cap space for LeBron, but unlike other NBA teams, they have Mark Cuban. If anyone would come up with some way to get a sign-and-trade done, it would be Cuban.
Having that all said, come to Chicago, Lebron!
Saturday, May 8, 2010
The recycling of coaches in the NBA is one of the most ridiculous practices in all of sports. This is not to say that someone who is fired was bad at their job and unworthy of a second chance, because people get those chances everyday in this country. I mean lets be honest, if your first opportunity in coaching was for the Nets or the Clippers, you weren't put into a position where success was possible, especially if a championship is the expectation. But we are talking about someone you are paying millions of dollars. Those people are C-level in the corporate world, and if they get fired, another company offering a job with the same or better pay isn't sitting there at their doorstep. This has been a long held opinion of mine and was recently refreshed as the names started coming out for the newly opened Chicago Bulls head coaching position.
On Tuesday, rightly or wrongly, the Bulls fired coach Vinny Del Negro. Reasons scattered from the altercations between Vinny and John Paxson to the fact that Vinny runs a high school offense consisting of five plays (literally). Bottom Line: Vinny was hired to be fired two years ago. At the time the Bulls were still paying Scott Skiles millions of dollars to sit at home, swung and miss on hiring Mike D'Antoni because they were hesitant to pull out the checkbook, and simply didn't want to pay a head coach. Enter Vinny Del Negro. Given his success over the last two years with a team not yet built to make a playoff run, he probably didn't deserve to get fired after leading them to the playoffs two years in a row, including one of the most exciting first round playoff matchups ever. Vinny, however, was not going to be the coach that lead the Bulls to their first championship since Michael, Scottie, and Phil. So it was time to make the change going into a summer that could completely change the course of the franchise for years to come (or put it back on course, however you want to view it).
The news was not unexpected and candidates had been coming out for weeks, but when it became official, speculation really took off. The initial lists have included Doug Collins (fired twice), Maurice Cheeks (fired twice), Eric Musselman (fired twice), Phil Jackson (a dream thats not going to happen), Jeff Van Gundy (fired once), Byron Scott (fired twice), Sam Mitchell (fired once), Tom Thibodeau (long-time assistant), Lawrence Frank (fired once), Dwane Casey (fired once), Avery Johnson (fired once), and John Calapari (fired once). So the question is, where is this desire for hiring a once (or more) deposed coach coming from? They obviously know something I don't know, as I would never claim to be an expert in basketball. I am merely a fan, but something seems fishy here.
Here's the backup for my case against recycling coaches. If you look back over the last two decades, there have been three coaches that had previously been fired to win a championship. The first was Chuck Daly who led the Pistons to back-to-back championships in '89 and '90. He had been allowed less than a full season in a previous stint with the Cavs, which is hard to even count given the time allowed and the franchise. The second was Larry Brown who also won with the Pistons in 2004. Brown, of course, has long been considered a journeyman in the basketball world and when he was fired by Larry Bird from the Indiana Pacers he had already had successful stints with Denver, New Jersey, San Antonio, the Los Angeles Clippers, and a National Championship with the Kansas Jayhawks. A resume far different from the names above. So, what teams are really hoping for is the next Doc Rivers. Doc Rivers won a championship with the Boston Celtics in 2008, after having spent four years with the Orlando Magic before being fired. The other names of the last 20-25 years Pat Riley (4 championships), Phil Jackson (10), Rudy Tomjanovich (2), Greg Popovich (4), not bad company. If you go to twenty-five years you add in KC Jones, who won two titles coaching the Boston Celtics but had previously been fired by the Washington Bullets. So, over the last twenty-five years that makes four coaches previously fired in the NBA, but only for two franchises, the Celtics and the Pistons, who, oh by the way, have won the first and fifth most championships of all time.
All this is to say that I don't know who the Chicago Bulls should hire if they want their next coach to take them to a championship, but I will say this, hiring someone like Dwane Casey, Sam Mitchell, or Eric Musselman would not only be unsexy, but also unsuccessful.
Saturday, May 1, 2010
OK, so its not quite mayday time for the Cubs, but April did see a rather lackluster month from the Cubbies, though it could have been worse. Here's a wrap on some of the numbers from the month that are positive and some that troubling. Let's start on a positive note!
Positive
16: The number of quality starts from the Cubs starting pitchers out of 24 starts, good for second in the National League, with a respectable ERA of 3.47. The Cubs starting pitching has been better than expected with Carlos Silva (not Zambrano) leading the way at 2-o with a 1.73 ERA and 4 out of 4 quality starts.
5: The number of Cubs regular starting position players with above .300 batting averages, with Soriano and frequent starter, Tyler Colvin, batting .292 and .289 respectively. The Cubs in general are batting well, paced by newcomer Marlon Byrd (.348 BA, .366 OBP, 4 HR, 16 RBI). Promising starts from Kosuke Fukudome (.344, .443, 5, 16) and Geovany Soto (.340, .500, 3, 7) add to some positive signs from the offense
35%: Geovany Soto's caught stealing percentage. Geo's recommitment to baseball, having lost 30 lbs in the offseason, has resulted a resurgence after a very disappointing sophomore season. His offense has gotten back to the level the Cubs were hoping for after his Rookie of the Year campaign, but the real bonus has been his defense, not known for being one of his strengths.
28: The number of home runs by the Cubs have hit on the season, good for tied for fourth in the majors and second in the National League. The troubling part of that stat is that the three teams ahead of them are 32-38, none of them over .500.
.311, 15, 50: The batting average, home runs, and RBIs from the four man platoon in the outfield of Kosuke Fukudome, Marlon Byrd, Alfonso Soriano, and Tyler Colvin. The four-headed outfield seems to be working in terms of offense. Its definitely better on defense when Colvin is manning right field.
Troubling
11-13: The Cubs record after April having not played the Phillies, Cardinals, or any of the good teams from the West. The Cubs are going to need to improve if they are going to move up in the standings when teams that are actually good get on to the schedule.
3: The number of saves the team has recorded. It's worth noting that it hasn't overly been the fault of Carlos Marmol, who has only blown one save but has looked good on the whole. Three saves makes the Cubs good for tied for 25th in the majors. This means they're not winning close games, which the good teams do.
9: The number of bases the Cubs have stolen, good for 23rd in the major league. This is indicative of the lack of team speed on this team. As a result, the Cubs have a subpar defense and have a hard time "manufacturing" runs.
4.80: The Cubs bullpen ERA, good for 12th in the National League. Add that to blowing four leads and registering six losses, and we're talking about one of the poorer bullpens in baseball through the first month.
.261: The Cubs batting average with runners in scoring position, good for 10th in the National League. This doesn't seem to do justice for how bad the Cubs have been in clutch hitting situations, but is indicative of the fact that the Cubs haven't had problems with baserunners, for the most part, as much as getting them in.
.357: Sounds like a really good first month for a hitter at the plate, but is unfortunately the combined batting averages of Cubs three and four hitters, Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez. Long-time staples of this offense, the Cubs need these guys to get going in order to win this season.
Favorite Stat of the Month
16.97: The K/9 IP ratio of Carlos Marmol, good for the best in the major leagues for pitchers who have logged more than 1.1 IP. He has 22 Ks in 11.1 IP, and is 1-0 with 3 saves and a 0.77 ERA. It's also positive that he has only walked five batters to this point. Carlos has looked solid knowing his role on the team as closer.
On the whole, the Cubs are doing one aspect of the game really well, and thats starting pitching. The defense is average at best, with limited range up the middle and shaky defense whenever Soriano is in the game. The relief seems to be getting better after the move of Carlos Zambrano to the bullpen, but there is definitely room for improvement. The big need for this team is better situational hitting and a turnaround by Ramirez and Lee. Here's to a better May!
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