Saturday, April 3, 2010

Hope Springs Eternal

With the turn of spring comes Opening Day for Major League Baseball - the best part of the season if you are a Cubs fan like myself... because there's still hope. This year I hope to drink in some of that hope with a trip to Chicago for the Cubs home opener. Though hope will surely be in abundance come opening day, to say that I think "This is the year" would be a stretch. The Cubs are getting up there in age, questions abound in the bullpen and the back end of the rotation, and health is always a big if with this team. If all these things fall in to place, they could certainly make the playoffs, but that's probably asking a lot. As for the teams that do have a shot, here are my winners:


AL West: This is somewhat of a crap shoot, and I think as long as you don't go with the A's you very well could be right. The Angels have lost a lot of parts in the last few years, but have one of the best managers in the game in Mike Scioscia. The Rangers can kill the ball on offense, but can they pitch the ball? And the Mariners have possibly the best 1-2 starters in baseball, but may not have a player hit more than 25 homers. Until they are unseated, I'm going with Mike Scioscia and the Angels. He always seems to get more out of less and will adjust his strategy to the team he has.

AL Central: Probably a battle between the White Sox and the Twins, with Detroit being the dark horse behind a good pitching staff and Miguel Cabrera. However, I'll take the Twins over the White Sox. Twins boast one of the best defenses in baseball, which will make their ace-less pitching staff look better than it is, and the best offense in this division with Mauer, Morneau, and Kubel in the heart of their lineup. The White Sox have better pitching, but they are an aging team and I think health issues may linger in by the end of the season - if not earlier.

AL East: The best division in baseball will surely have two teams in the playoffs, the question is which of the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays will be there. All have good if not great pitching, all have very good lineups, and all now have legit closers. The edge in starting pitching (at least from a depth perspective) goes to the Red Sox, bullpen goes to the Yanks with Rivera, lineup probably goes to the Yanks, and defense goes to the Rays ahead of the Sox. Who's gonna win? I don't know. I'll go with the Yankees because its hard to go against them now that they have their confidence back, and the Red Sox as the Wild Card. Its unoriginal, but usually right.

NL West: The Rockies are the popular pick here, but I'm going to go with the Dodgers to repeat. I think both will make the playoffs, but I think the Dodgers take the division off a very good young lineup thats bound to get better, not to mention Manny in a contract year. Defense might be slightly behind the Rockies, but I like the Dodgers staff anchored by Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley, with Broxton closing out games. I think the Rockies do take the Wild Card though to make their third playoff run in the last four years.

NL Central: I wish I could take my Cubbies here, but I don't see enough improvement to think this team is any better than last year. I think the Cardinals will repeat, though they are very dependent on the health of some key cogs including Carpenter, Wainwright, Pujols, Holliday, and Yadier Molina. They have the best top end talent in the division, but not the best depth of talent. All of these guys except Wainwright have had some injury issues throughout the spring. If any of these guys miss an extended period of time, it opens the door for the Cubs and Brewers.

NL East: No real question here - its the Phillies. Best lineup, best pitching staff, and best defense in the east. Not only are they the best team in the NL East, they are the best team in the National League. They added the best pitcher in baseball, Roy Halladay, to a two-time NL pennant winner. That's not even fair. I do think that the Braves and Marlins could make a run at the Wild Card, but the NL East - no.

Preseason World Series Pick: It's boring and uninspired but I'm going to take the Yankees and the Phillies in the World Series again. When you get to a playoff format, the Yankees top of the rotation is hard to beat. The Red Sox have the depth, but in the playoffs it becomes a wash with the shortened rotation. That brings it down to their lineups, and the Yankees can just hit more. I think the Phillies are the class of the National League, and though the Cardinals become difficult in the playoffs with a 1-2 in Carpenter and Wainwright, I think the Phillies still come out on top with the depth of their lineup and a better defense. In the series, I'll take the Phillies over the Yankees, getting revenge for their loss in the World Series last year.

It may look a certain way on paper, but they'll have 162 games to prove me wrong. Let's Play Ball!

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